The Rising Tide: China's Grip on the Solomon Islands

While the South China Sea dominates discussions of China's maritime expansion, the less-publicized but critical growth of Chinese influence in Oceania is creating significant geopolitical tensions and security concerns for regional powers and island nations. The Solomon Islands exemplify this trend, as it is becoming a key focus in the competition between China and the traditional Western allies. China's push for closer security and economic ties marks a strategic pivot into a region that has been traditionally under the influence of Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Where is Solomon Islands?

The Solomon Islands, often simply called the Solomons, is an archipelago nation in Oceania. It lies northeast of Australia and comprises six main islands and over a thousand smaller ones, covering roughly 29,000 sq km with a population of 700,000. Honiara, the capital and largest city, is located on the largest island, Guadalcanal.

The modern history of the Solomons began in June 1893 when Captain Herbert Gibson established a British protectorate here. The islands became a critical battleground during World War II, witnessing intense conflict between the US, Britain, and Japan.

In 1975, the territory was renamed as "The Solomon Islands" and self-governance was granted in 1976. The country achieved full independence in 1978 and was named "Solomon Islands". It’s still a constitutional monarchy within the Commonwealth realm, with the British monarch as head of state, who is represented by a governor-general.

China's Growing Influence

Following its independence in 1978, the Solomon Islands established diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1983, which continued for the next 36 years. During this period, Taiwan provided significant aid, including infrastructure, scholarships, and medical assistance, but as China's global influence grew, the Solomon Islands eventually succumbed to pressure from Beijing's "One-China Policy" which mandates that other nations should only recognize the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of both China and Taiwan, thereby rejecting Taiwan's claim to independent statehood.

In 2019, the Solomon Islands officially severed all diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and recognized China. It was a move consistent with a wider regional shift in the Pacific.

This decision was swiftly followed by the signing of an MoU with China, formally integrating the country into China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is an initiative launched in 2013. BRI is a massive global infrastructure and economic development project. Its stated goal is to enhance regional cooperation, trade, and investment by establishing extensive land and maritime networks to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe.

The Solomon Islands' economy relies heavily on agriculture, fishing, and forestry, with minimal industrialization. The BRI partnership with China focuses on infrastructure development, including Chinese-funded projects such as the redevelopment of Honiara International Port, road corridor upgrades, and new sports facilities, like the $119 million USD national sports stadium and affiliated facilities in Honiara. The cooperation also encompasses Chinese language teaching, government scholarships, and training programs.

Since the shift in diplomatic relations, Solomon Islands' ministry officials have been visiting China on the so-called study tours almost every month. Beyond national initiatives, Chinese local governments are actively fostering collaborations with Solomon Islands' provinces, and universities from both nations are formalizing agreements to establish R&D centers.

The Concerns

Although BRI has brought immense economic transformations in the region through large-scale infrastructure projects, it also raises concerns about long-term financial sustainability. A key risk is "debt-trap diplomacy," where the Solomon Islands could struggle with repayments, potentially jeopardizing its control over assets or resources—a situation already observed in nations such as Sri Lanka. Most of the timber and other natural resources of Solomon Islands are exported to China, which also creates a substantial dependency on the Chinese market.

However, the concerns about China's growing influence are not limited to infrastructure and trade. In 2022, the Solomon Islands and China signed a security cooperation framework. This agreement was initially kept secret which also alarmed the Western allies due to the potential for a Chinese military presence.

Soon it became clear that these concerns were not unfounded. In January 2022, a PLA Air Force plane loaded with riot equipment and security personnel in camouflage gear landed in Honiara. This arrangement is called the “China Public Security Bureau Solomon Islands Policing Advisory Group” (CPAG) and has become a permanent presence.

China's domestic police service maintains a presence with 12 personnel deployed for six-month rotations, operating across all provinces of the Solomon Islands. There have also been reports about China’s efforts to influence media reporting in Solomon Islands. Most recently, overseas media highlighted China's role in domestic politics following a motion of no confidence.

What are the alternatives?

From the Solomon Islands’ perspective, the growing relationship with China comes with both opportunities and challenges. While the previous Sogavare government was strongly pro-China, the current government, headed by Jeremiah Manele, has been trying to balance its relations with both the US and China as both the superpowers continue to compete globally for influence.

At the same time, the country is also trying to diversify its partnerships with Australia, New Zealand and other such partners. Manele has hinted several times that he would prefer to partner with countries like New Zealand for critical projects such as the Bina Harbor project. But New Zealand can’t fund this massive project alone, and its efforts to lobby other countries to grant aid for the project have not succeeded yet. Meanwhile, China is actively eyeing to take over the whole project. This is only one project, but there are many more such examples where smaller countries fail to secure support from Western democracies, and end up falling into the Chinese authoritarian debt trap.

In the crucial Pacific Ocean region, Solomon Islands exemplify smaller nations caught between the geopolitical rivalry of the US and China.